Replication of a predictive model for youth ADHD in an independent sample from a developing country / Cezar H. LORENZI in Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 64-1 (January 2023)  

Public ISBD [article]  inJournal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry > 64-1 (January 2023) . - p.167-174 Titre : Replication of a predictive model for youth ADHD in an independent sample from a developing country Type de document : Texte imprimé et/ou numérique Auteurs : Cezar H. LORENZI, Auteur ; Douglas TEIXEIRA LEFFA, Auteur ; Rodrigo BRESSAN, Auteur ; Sintia I. BELANGERO, Auteur ; Ary GADELHA, Auteur ; Marcos L. SANTORO, Auteur ; Giovanni A. SALUM, Auteur ; Luis Augusto ROHDE, Auteur ; Arthur CAYE, Auteur Article en page(s) : p.167-174 Langues : Anglais (eng) Index. décimale : PER Périodiques Résumé : Background Very few predictive models in Psychiatry had their performance validated in independent external samples. A previously developed multivariable demographic model for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) accurately predicted young adulthood ADHD using clinical and demographical information collected in childhood in three samples from developed countries, but failed to replicate its performance in a sample from a developing country. Furthermore, consolidated risk factors for ADHD were not included among its predictors. Methods Participants were 1905 children and adolescents from a community-based sample and followed from ages 6 to 14 years at baseline to ages 14 to 23 years (mean age 18) at follow-up. We applied the intercept and weights of the original model to the data, calculating the predicted probability of each participant according to the set of predictors collected in childhood, and compared the estimates with the actual outcome (ADHD) collected during adolescence and young adulthood. We explored the performance of the original model, and of models including novel predictors (prematurity, family history of ADHD, and polygenic risk score for ADHD). Results The observed area under the curve of the original model was .76 (95% Confidence Interval .70 to .82). The multivariable demographical model outperformed single variable models using only prematurity, family history, or the ADHD PRS. Adding either of these variables, or all at once, did not improve the performance of the original demographical model. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the originally developed ADHD predictive model is suitable for use in different settings for clinical and research purposes. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.13682 Permalink : https://www.cra-rhone-alpes.org/cid/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=490 [article] Replication of a predictive model for youth ADHD in an independent sample from a developing country [Texte imprimé et/ou numérique] / Cezar H. LORENZI, Auteur ; Douglas TEIXEIRA LEFFA, Auteur ; Rodrigo BRESSAN, Auteur ; Sintia I. BELANGERO, Auteur ; Ary GADELHA, Auteur ; Marcos L. SANTORO, Auteur ; Giovanni A. SALUM, Auteur ; Luis Augusto ROHDE, Auteur ; Arthur CAYE, Auteur . - p.167-174. Langues : Anglais (eng) in Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry > 64-1 (January 2023) . - p.167-174 Index. décimale : PER Périodiques Résumé : Background Very few predictive models in Psychiatry had their performance validated in independent external samples. A previously developed multivariable demographic model for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) accurately predicted young adulthood ADHD using clinical and demographical information collected in childhood in three samples from developed countries, but failed to replicate its performance in a sample from a developing country. Furthermore, consolidated risk factors for ADHD were not included among its predictors. Methods Participants were 1905 children and adolescents from a community-based sample and followed from ages 6 to 14 years at baseline to ages 14 to 23 years (mean age 18) at follow-up. We applied the intercept and weights of the original model to the data, calculating the predicted probability of each participant according to the set of predictors collected in childhood, and compared the estimates with the actual outcome (ADHD) collected during adolescence and young adulthood. We explored the performance of the original model, and of models including novel predictors (prematurity, family history of ADHD, and polygenic risk score for ADHD). Results The observed area under the curve of the original model was .76 (95% Confidence Interval .70 to .82). The multivariable demographical model outperformed single variable models using only prematurity, family history, or the ADHD PRS. Adding either of these variables, or all at once, did not improve the performance of the original demographical model. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the originally developed ADHD predictive model is suitable for use in different settings for clinical and research purposes. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpp.13682 Permalink : https://www.cra-rhone-alpes.org/cid/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=490

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