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Selection bias induced by reproductive stoppage in estimates of recurrence risk for autism spectrum disorders / Michael BEENSTOCK in Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders, 89 (November 2021)
[article]
Titre : Selection bias induced by reproductive stoppage in estimates of recurrence risk for autism spectrum disorders Type de document : Texte imprimé et/ou numérique Auteurs : Michael BEENSTOCK, Auteur Article en page(s) : 101863 Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Recurrence risk of ASD Reproductive stoppage Selection bias Incidental truncation method Inverse probability weighting Index. décimale : PER Périodiques Résumé : Background In observational studies it is implicitly assumed that the data are representative of the general population. Self-selection by individuals may undermine this assumption, inducing sample selection bias. In studies of recurrence risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) it is implicitly assumed that parents who had no further children face the same recurrence risk as parents who had further children. If this assumption is false, estimates of recurrence risk may be too high or too low. Method Two canonical statistical methods for detecting and correcting for sample selection bias, including incidental truncation and inverse probability weighting, are applied to population cohort data for Israel. The data comprise 8205 younger siblings of 9117 children diagnosed with ASD, among which there were 371 recurrences. Reproductive stoppage occurred in 4216 out of 9117 families. Participants are distinguished by demographics (gender, age), ethnicity (Jews and Arabs), religiosity, birth cohort and socioeconomic status. Results Correcting for selection bias using the incidental truncation method, the average risk of recurrence is 3.83 (95 %CI: 3.41 %–4.24 %) instead of 4.53 % (95 %CI: 4.08 %–4.98 %). The bias has p-value 0.082. Since the incidental truncation method may be sensitive to parametric assumptions regarding the joint distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in stoppage and recurrence risk, robustness tests are carried out using alternative parametric assumptions, including copulas. Results using the method of inverse probability weighting were unsatisfactory because they were sensitive to hidden confounders. Conclusions Studies of recurrent risk of ASD should take account of potential selection bias induced by reproductive stoppage. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rasd.2021.101863 Permalink : https://www.cra-rhone-alpes.org/cid/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=458
in Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders > 89 (November 2021) . - 101863[article] Selection bias induced by reproductive stoppage in estimates of recurrence risk for autism spectrum disorders [Texte imprimé et/ou numérique] / Michael BEENSTOCK, Auteur . - 101863.
Langues : Anglais (eng)
in Research in Autism Spectrum Disorders > 89 (November 2021) . - 101863
Mots-clés : Recurrence risk of ASD Reproductive stoppage Selection bias Incidental truncation method Inverse probability weighting Index. décimale : PER Périodiques Résumé : Background In observational studies it is implicitly assumed that the data are representative of the general population. Self-selection by individuals may undermine this assumption, inducing sample selection bias. In studies of recurrence risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) it is implicitly assumed that parents who had no further children face the same recurrence risk as parents who had further children. If this assumption is false, estimates of recurrence risk may be too high or too low. Method Two canonical statistical methods for detecting and correcting for sample selection bias, including incidental truncation and inverse probability weighting, are applied to population cohort data for Israel. The data comprise 8205 younger siblings of 9117 children diagnosed with ASD, among which there were 371 recurrences. Reproductive stoppage occurred in 4216 out of 9117 families. Participants are distinguished by demographics (gender, age), ethnicity (Jews and Arabs), religiosity, birth cohort and socioeconomic status. Results Correcting for selection bias using the incidental truncation method, the average risk of recurrence is 3.83 (95 %CI: 3.41 %–4.24 %) instead of 4.53 % (95 %CI: 4.08 %–4.98 %). The bias has p-value 0.082. Since the incidental truncation method may be sensitive to parametric assumptions regarding the joint distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in stoppage and recurrence risk, robustness tests are carried out using alternative parametric assumptions, including copulas. Results using the method of inverse probability weighting were unsatisfactory because they were sensitive to hidden confounders. Conclusions Studies of recurrent risk of ASD should take account of potential selection bias induced by reproductive stoppage. En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rasd.2021.101863 Permalink : https://www.cra-rhone-alpes.org/cid/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=458 Crossroads in juvenile justice: The impact of initial processing decision on youth 5 years after first arrest / Elizabeth CAUFFMAN in Development and Psychopathology, 33-2 (May 2021)
[article]
Titre : Crossroads in juvenile justice: The impact of initial processing decision on youth 5 years after first arrest Type de document : Texte imprimé et/ou numérique Auteurs : Elizabeth CAUFFMAN, Auteur ; Jordan BEARDSLEE, Auteur ; Adam FINE, Auteur ; Paul J. FRICK, Auteur ; Laurence STEINBERG, Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : p.700-713 Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : adolescence diversion inverse probability weighting juvenile justice policy processing decision recidivism risk-taking social policy Index. décimale : PER Périodiques Résumé : The current study advances past research by studying the impact of juvenile justice decision making with a geographically and ethnically diverse sample (N = 1,216) of adolescent boys (ages 13-17 years) for the 5 years following their first arrest. Importantly, all youth in the study were arrested for an eligible offense of moderate severity (e.g., assault, theft) to evaluate whether the initial decision to formally (i.e., sentenced before a judge) or informally (i.e., diverted to community service) process the youth led to differences in outcomes. The current study also advanced past research by using a statistical approach that controlled for a host of potential preexisting vulnerabilities that could influence both the processing decision and the youth's outcomes. Our findings indicated that youth who were formally processed during adolescence were more likely to be re-arrested, more likely to be incarcerated, engaged in more violence, reported a greater affiliation with delinquent peers, reported lower school enrollment, were less likely to graduate high school within 5 years, reported less ability to suppress aggression, and had lower perceptions of opportunities than informally processed youth. Importantly, these findings were not moderated by the age of the youth at his first arrest or his race and ethnicity. These results have important implications for juvenile justice policy by indicating that formally processing youth not only is costly, but it can reduce public safety and reduce the adolescent's later potential contributions to society. En ligne : http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s095457942000200x Permalink : https://www.cra-rhone-alpes.org/cid/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=444
in Development and Psychopathology > 33-2 (May 2021) . - p.700-713[article] Crossroads in juvenile justice: The impact of initial processing decision on youth 5 years after first arrest [Texte imprimé et/ou numérique] / Elizabeth CAUFFMAN, Auteur ; Jordan BEARDSLEE, Auteur ; Adam FINE, Auteur ; Paul J. FRICK, Auteur ; Laurence STEINBERG, Auteur . - 2021 . - p.700-713.
Langues : Anglais (eng)
in Development and Psychopathology > 33-2 (May 2021) . - p.700-713
Mots-clés : adolescence diversion inverse probability weighting juvenile justice policy processing decision recidivism risk-taking social policy Index. décimale : PER Périodiques Résumé : The current study advances past research by studying the impact of juvenile justice decision making with a geographically and ethnically diverse sample (N = 1,216) of adolescent boys (ages 13-17 years) for the 5 years following their first arrest. Importantly, all youth in the study were arrested for an eligible offense of moderate severity (e.g., assault, theft) to evaluate whether the initial decision to formally (i.e., sentenced before a judge) or informally (i.e., diverted to community service) process the youth led to differences in outcomes. The current study also advanced past research by using a statistical approach that controlled for a host of potential preexisting vulnerabilities that could influence both the processing decision and the youth's outcomes. Our findings indicated that youth who were formally processed during adolescence were more likely to be re-arrested, more likely to be incarcerated, engaged in more violence, reported a greater affiliation with delinquent peers, reported lower school enrollment, were less likely to graduate high school within 5 years, reported less ability to suppress aggression, and had lower perceptions of opportunities than informally processed youth. Importantly, these findings were not moderated by the age of the youth at his first arrest or his race and ethnicity. These results have important implications for juvenile justice policy by indicating that formally processing youth not only is costly, but it can reduce public safety and reduce the adolescent's later potential contributions to society. En ligne : http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s095457942000200x Permalink : https://www.cra-rhone-alpes.org/cid/opac_css/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=444